Hello! Got a question that’s been bugging me for awhile. But it’s going to take some Number Crunching to get an answer, so be prepared for Math. Here it is: Why are there so few Concealed Handgun Permit (CHP) Holders out there?
Let’s set up some Baselines first, shall we? First, every State now has Laws issuing CHPs. 40+ are “Shall Issue” (though some, like Ohio makes one wonder), some are “May Issue” (and Good Luck getting a Permit there!), while a few are “Constitutional Carry” (“Permit? What Permit? Carry what you want.”). But they are available.
Next, who is Eligible? Well, since the Federales seem to think that only those who are over the age of 21 can be trusted with a Handgun (though that didn’t stop the Navy from tossing me a 1911 and saying “Guard the Ship” when I was 19), we first need to find out the Numbers.
Checking out my Almanac, it seems that after the 2010 Census, there were about 311,591,919 people living in the U.S. They also “estimated” that there were 11,510,000 Illegal Aliens living here. So let’s round some numbers, and say there are 300,000,000 people Legally Eligible in the U.S. to get a CHP.
But that’s too many. There’s that Age Rquirement, remember? According to the Census, there were over 237,681,000 People above the Age of 18. They seem to lump 18-24 in one category, so let’s say there are 210,000,000 over the age of 21. Let’s take out the Illegals, and call it 200 Million even.
But that’s still not right. If one is a Convicted Felon, or has a Misdemeanor Domestic Violence Conviction, or a Judge has Ruled them Mentally Incompetent, or one is on a Resident Visa, that further reduces the Pool. So let’s be generous, and take out, oh say 15,000,000. So we are down to 185,000,000. But there’s more. Seems that there’s 5,600,000+ over the age of 85. Now please don’t claim I’m being “Ageist,” but how many of you really think Great-Grandma is coming out of the Nursing Home to get her CHP? So, we at 180,000,000 Legally Eligible People who could get their CHPs.
Except there’s the Uber-Liberal Anti-RKBA VolksRepubliks to consider. From my stats, if we eliminate those States such as New York, Kalifornia, Conn, R.I., Maryland, et.al., thats about 80,000,000 Citizens denied their RKBA due to some Political Hacks Agenda. So, we are down to a Baseline of 100,000,000 Legally Eligible Citizens who could apply for their “Shall Issue” or start to Constitutionally Carry today, and be “Good to Go” by Christmas.
And if that ever happens, I’ll be booking a Vacation Trip to Mars.
Here’s why. A). The NRA has about 6 Million Members. Now, most of them would support any Reduction in Anti-Freedom Laws, and probably most of them have at least looked into getting their CHPs. So that’s a Good Thing. B). Supposedly, there’s about 200 Million Firearms out there in the Hands of Citizens, but that includes Long Guns. Which is a Good Thing, but why haven’t they joined the NRA? C). If 100,000,000 people applied for their CHPs, the Bureaucracy would Crash faster than an IRS Computer (read the News), the FBI/NICS/Whoever would slow down so fast on the Orders of their Political Bosses it would look like a Turtle Race. D) Some Liberal Activist Federal Judge or Ten would issue “Cease and Desist” Orders so fast it’d make your Head Spin. E) Congress would pass Legislation restricting CHPs to Federal “May Issue” IF WE WERE LUCKY. F) Obama would issue some Executive Order to shut it down YESTERDAY. And Finally, our Fellow Citizens, even if they are Legally Eligible just don’t want one. Want Proof? Here’s some.
So, awhile back, Sean D. Sorrentino of NCGunBlog was running some Stats on the various numbers of CHPs being issued from various States. I noticed a trend, and I checked it out against Ohio. And it seemed to match. So here’s what I’ve discovered. According to the Census, Ohio has 11.5 Million People. Eliminate the ineligible and being Conservative, let’s say there’s 7 Million Buckeyes who could be walking the Streets with their CHPs today. Know how many CHPs are Active?
A little over 310,000. That’s just over 4% of those who could have their CHPs, but don’t. And from the numbers I crunched from Sean’s datum, 3-5% of the Eligible Population in the U.S. has their CHPs. That’s 3-5% of those who are living in “Shall Issue” or Constitutional Carry. So that means, at any given moment, 3-5 Million people have a Permit to Conceal Carry in the U.S. That’s about 1% of the Total Population. 1%.
Granted, that’s a heck of a lot more than there was in the ’80s, when the CHP movement started. And if we could free the VolksRepubliks, we might get another 1%. But we have to deal with Facts, not Wishs. One of which is that MAYBE 50% of those who have their CHPs are actually using them on a daily basis. If I had a Nickel for every time I’ve heard “Oh, I just got it just in case I have to go to a “Bad Neighborhood,” I really don’t NEED it for where I live…”
So, at the Bottom Line, at any given moment, 1-2 Million Citizens jumped through the Hoops, spent their Cash, got their CHPs and are using them outside their Homes. That’s less than 1%.
It’s not as bad as one thinks, though. According to an FBI Stat, there are about 1 Million Law Enforcement Employees out there, 70% are Sworn Officers, which means they get to have Gun and a Badge and can Arrest the Bad Guys. The rest are Dispatchers, Prison Guards, etc. And that doesn’t count Federales, just State and Local. So nationwide, there’s a Pool of say, 750,000 Cops out there to handle a 911 Call. For 311,000,000 people. That’s .2% of the Population. Oh, one could throw in a half a million Private Security Guards, but they are used to protect one specific location or event. And if you’re not at that location or event when the SHTF and are Unarmed, you are waiting for help to get there. And waiting, and waiting…
Oh, here’s something else to think about. According to the Census, there is a Prison Population of about 1.6 Million at any one time. And not all of them are there for Life. Every day, some are released back into the World. Now, not all of them are Dangerous, nor will they commit any further Crimes. But considering how many went on a Plea Bargain, and only spent 10 years in instead of 30, plus Early Release due to Over-Crowding, so how many Goblins do you think are out there? 5 Million? 6 Million? Plus we have those who haven’t been caught yet, nor the “Young Punks” who are in Teen-Aged “Crews” for the Gangs, nor the Psychos, so let’s say there are, oh, 8 Million “Nasty Bastards” who mean to do you and yours Harm if they can get away with it. Unless they also want to do a “Suicide-By-Cop” and go out in a “Blaze of Glory,” like those Scum who shoot up Movie Theaters and Schools.
So let’s wrap this up. 8 Million Goblins vs 1 Million Cops and Security Guards. With a 911 Response Time that gives the Bad Guys plenty of time to harm you. Versus an Armed Citizenry of 2 Million CHP Holders on the Streets, with another 50-60 Million Homes with Firearms of some sort in them. Don’t know about you, but if we could get the number of CHP Holders UP to even 10% AND they carry outside the Home, with better Reciprocity if we cross State Lines, I think Violent Crime would be cut in Half. Which means there would be plenty of Prison Space, and there would be no Over-Crowding Releases. The Bad Guys would be in Prison where they belong, not roaming our Country. Just my Opinion, of course.
But how do we get there, when everywhere you turn, the MSM and the Political Lefties and RINOs and the Anti-Gunners and their Cronies are doing their best to make US the Bad Guys because we want Nationwide “Shall Issue” or Constitutional Carry or at least Nationwide Reciprocity? I mean, it’s simple Math. 8 Million Goblins vs 1 Million Cops and 3 Million Armed Good Guys on the Street. It’s still running 2-1 AGAINST the Good Guys outside the Homes in the Public Sphere. And it’s worse than that, because the CHP Holder has all those “Gun Free Zones” that disarm them. Which doesn’t mean a Damn Thing to the Goblins. So how do we increase our odds? How do we tell our Friends and Families that getting a CHP and USING it is a Good Thing they need to be doing? Any Ideas? Bubblehead Les Out.